According to the “Product-Based Brexit Guide for the Private Sector” report prepared by the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV), Turkey’s 1.59 percent share of the UK’s trade indicates the extent of the negative effects that post-Brexit trade can have on Turkey.
If a new agreement is not signed between the two countries after the transition period for Turkey’s exports to the UK, there will be a direct loss as customs duties on some products will increase.
At the same time, the UK has cut tariffs to 0 per cent for all countries where it does not have a deal on products that account for 88 per cent of its own imports, according to its temporary tariff rule for the post-Brexit programme, while Turkey has in the past benefited from 0 per cent tariff under the Customs Union.
there was no direct difference in terms of the rate of customs duties. On the other hand, in the past, Turkey may lose its past customs duty advantage compared to third countries and suffer a significant loss of competitiveness, as the UK has demanded customs duties of more than 0 percent when importing some of these products from thirdcountries.
If a new trade agreement is not signed between Turkey and the UK, direct or indirect competitiveness loss may occur in 70% of bilateral trade, 83%of Turkey’s exports and 51%of UK exports.
This will also touch the logistics sector, and without a deal, shipments of goods to the UK are likely to fall by 25-30%.
The source report is available from https://www.tepav.org.tr/upload/files/1581330901-0.TEPAV_Brexit_Raporu.pdf.