As a result of the US-China trade war, which increased its impact in 2019, China’s exports to the US decreased by approximately 10% in 2019. On the other hand, US exports to China shrank by 12%, creating a serious impact on world trade. However, research has shown that the impact of this trade war has diminished. In Agility’s survey of more than 780 global logistics company executives, despite an expected 10.4% decrease in trade in 2018, a decrease of only 4% was expected in 2019. However, when data related to maritime trade is examined, it reveals a 40% decrease in exports, especially from China, in 2018.
In the second stage of the survey, participants were asked whether they would make any changes in their operational investments in China after the trade war. 2.6% of the participants stated that they would close all of their production facilities in China, and 16.8% stated that they would downsize. It is of great importance to which country these investments coming from the Chinese economy, which constitutes 17% of the world economy with an economic size of 14.5 trillion dollars, will go. When managers were asked where they would go if they withdraw from the Chinese market, their answers are listed as follows.
index2020 ÇİN'E ALTERNATİF ÜLKE TERCİHLERİ
| S.Nu. | Ülke Tercihi | Yüzde |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vietnam | %25 |
| 2 | Hindistan | %22,9 |
| 3 | Ana Vatan | %13 |
| 4 | Diğer | %10,7 |
| 5 | Malezya | %9,5 |
| 6 | Tayland | %6,3 |
| 7 | Endonezya | %4,1 |
| 8 | Türkiye | %2,7 |
| 9 | Filipinler | %2,5 |
| 10 | Meksika | %2 |
| 11 | Kamboçya | %1,4 |
Although the rates for the companies on the list seem small, the damage that the 20% of investors who plan to leave the Chinese economy or reduce their investments will cause to the Chinese economy and their contribution to their destinations will be very high. We can say that especially developing Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam and India will be shining stars in the field of investment in the coming years.
On the other hand, in the regularly announced Agility logistics index, Turkey received 6.09 points out of 10 in 2017, 6.03 in 2018, 5.56 in 2019 and 5.54 in 2020. Continuing its regular thinking, Turkey can further increase the 2.7% share it can get from investments from China with the investments it will make in the logistics sector.
You can access the report prepared by Agility at https://logisticsinsights.agility.com/emerging-markets-logistics-index/overview/.
