CORONAVIRUS VACCINE WINKS 1 TRILLION DOLLARS ECONOMY IN THE WORLD
The coronavirus continues to spread in waves. The number of known cases has exceeded 60 million. To date, approximately 1.5 million people have lost their lives. It is evaluated that the actual number of cases and deaths may be much higher than the countries officially express. In many underdeveloped regions such as Africa, South America and India, it is not possible to see what the real situation is due to insufficient testing. However, a virus smaller than 100 nm that can be seen with a microscope captures every aspect of our lives.
Coronavirus is giving much greater damage to Europe, America and other developing countries than it did to China, where it originated. The 80 trillion dollar world economy is in big trouble. The economic contraction has exceeded 10% before completing a year. Millions of people were unemployed. Humanity has been fighting a great war for a year. Everyone is after a vaccine that can stop this bad trend. 7.8 billion people’s eyes and ears are locked on the developments related to the vaccine.
German BioNTech and its partner Pfizer from the USA, which completed the third phase vaccine test studies recently and announced that they have reached an effective level of 95%, which can be quite ambitious, have started mass production and started to sign preliminary agreements with countries, although they have not yet received the official sales license.
Pfizer will produce 50 million doses of vaccine by the end of 2020, with a 2021 target of 1.3 billion doses. It is estimated that the world will need at least 8 billion doses of vaccine in the next 2 years. As a matter of fact, it is considered that at least 15-20% of the vaccines to be transferred will be wasted, as the cold chain is likely to be broken. In this case, it can be accepted that at least 10 billion doses of vaccine will be needed for the first two years. When the production of 10 billion doses of vaccine, its storage at -70 degrees Celsius, logistics and application costs in the field are taken into account, it seems that it will cost the world economy more than 1 trillion dollars annually. Although this cost may seem like a big budget, it does not mean anything compared to the cumulative loss of over 10 trillion dollars in the world economy, which has been cornered and rapidly contracted by the Coronavirus. In our country, the cost of vaccinating 83 million people may exceed 8 billion dollars. Another issue is that if immunity is limited to one year, the vaccine may need to be administered every year, and this will lead to serious costs,” he said.
8 THOUSAND JUMBO JETS ARE REQUIRED IN THE FIRST STAGE TO SHIP 7.8 BILLION VACCINES TO THE WORLD
The mRNA vaccine developed by BioNTech must be transported at -70 degrees Celsius and used within 5 days after transplantation. This brings with it a very serious logistics problem. No cargo/logistics company in the world has the infrastructure to carry out and store cold chain transportation at -70 degrees Celsius without making special investments. Production centers for the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine will be Germany, Belgium and the USA. It is aimed to be distributed all over the world from here. Aiming to ship 20 trucks of vaccine per day from a facility, the company aims to transfer a total of 7.6 million doses of vaccine a day from nearby airports to cargo planes.
In order for the vaccine to provide protection and to show the expected effect, it should be administered as 2 doses at 3 week intervals. In other words, 10 billion vaccines are enough to vaccinate only 5 billion people. 2021 will witness one of the largest air logistics operations in the world. It turns out that more than 8,000 large-type cargo planes will be needed for the first year to distribute vaccine doses, which will be placed in ultra-cold special transport boxes that can store the vaccine between -70 and -80 degrees Celsius. According to initial plans, Pfizer will produce 50 million doses of vaccine by the end of 2020, with a 2021 target of 1.3 billion doses. It is estimated that the world will need at least 10 billion doses of vaccine in the next 2 years. Pfizer is in talks with FedEX, DHL and UPS for worldwide distribution. Since airlines have insufficient cargo fleets, many major airlines are planning to convert a group of passenger aircraft into cargo aircraft.
In summary, 8,000 Boeing 747 jumbo jet flights are required to carry 2 doses of vaccine, which is needed by half of 7.8 billion people, to the first level points. FedEx, the owner of the world’s largest air cargo fleet, has 600 cargo planes. A new logistics economy seems to be born here.
IN OUR COUNTRY, THE COST OF VACCINATION MAY EXCEED 8 BILLION DOLLARS
The number of doses needed for 83 million people is 199.2 million doses with a 20% increase. Having made a pre-order agreement with the US Government for 100 million doses of vaccine, Pfizer will receive $1.95 billion for this agreement. It costs $19.5 per dose to the US at a special price. We expect this to be in the range of $30-40 for other countries, depending on the order quantity. The mRNA-1273 vaccine, which was announced to provide 95% protection by another US vaccine company, Moderna, is expected to be sold at the same price bands. If Turkey makes an agreement for 199.2 million doses, the amount it will pay for vaccines will be at least 5.5-6 billion dollars. If immunity is limited to one year, the vaccine may need to be administered every year, which will lead to serious costs. If our country will use its preference or priority for BioNTech’s mRNA vaccine, the vaccines can maintain at -70 degrees Celsius; airports, cities and hospitals will need special freezers with ultra-coolers. The cost of a freezer that can store 1,200 doses is up to 15 thousand dollars. Considering Turkey’s needs, the infrastructure investment cost of only -70 Celsius coolers and storage systems will be over $1.24 Billion. In addition, there will be a logistical cost of millions of dollars for the distribution of vaccines arriving at airports throughout the country without breaking the cold chain. Looking at the current picture, the arrival of vaccines in Turkey and the start of widespread application seems to be March 2021, with the most optimistic forecast. Due to supply and logistical constraints, I estimate that a maximum of 20-25% of the population can be vaccinated in 2021, but this rate could only be 50% higher if an effective domestic vaccine could be introduced by mid-2021.